Here we go! A new season. A new year at Saratoga Race Course. The forecast for Opening Weekend seemed pretty grim at the start of the week but really turned itself around. We got some rain overnight but all was fine and clear by 5am this morning. However, we will be off the turf today.
Obviously with being off the turf, we get a good deal of scratches along with MTOs that enter the field. Perhaps I am most excited to see SPEIGHTFUL LILY draw into Race 7. As Ryan Metzger pointed out on Twitter/X this morning, Race 7, post 11 (assigned) on 7/11. There's a lot to like about this three-year-old filly and she will likely be a very heavy favorite come post time. She put on a very impressive debut performance earlier this year at Aqueduct. She couldn't replicate that effort in her second race but made a swift rebound last month up here at the Spa during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. She's a NY bred that has only raced against NY bred company. That continues today. I think she's the ONLY slam dunk, best bet, etc. of the day.
Today's feature is the Schuylerville Stakes for two-year-old fillies. A lot of eyes are going to go to the half sister of MGSW JACK CHRISTOPHER, named COMPLEXION. She debuted at Aqueduct just about a month ago and won with ease at 8/5. I saw her in her stall on Sunday morning when filming some content for Horse Racing Nation and she's a stunner. If there was a contest for the shiniest coat on the backstretch, she would win by the length of the stretch. She's 7/2 on the morning line. My guess is she will be bet down TOO much given her familial connections. Here's my problem with that: these horses have only raced once before. And frankly, she and her competitors haven't faced much of anything.
About a year ago, I switched from pen and printed out PPs to a refurbished iPad and the Notability App. When I jotted down my thoughts atop the PPs of this race, I wrote "the right answer" on top of CARMEN'S CANDY JAR and that is where I will lean in this race today. I think if I got 6-1 on an Irad/Repole/Pletcher stakes filly, I would be winning the horse racing lottery so I am not sure I'll be lucky enough to get that price either. But she's the outlier for me. Again, many of these fillies have only races once before so we don't know which of them could adapt to different running styles. Many in the field broke their maidens on or close to the lead. This VINO ROSSO filly closed very nicely and maturely. The concern I have here is she's running on about two and a half weeks of rest. Obviously, she's doing well to the point Pletcher put her in here but just something to be mindful about.
The horse that will break from the outside post in the feature is THE QUEENS M G. Frankly, I am actually nervous to see this horse run. She is 30-1 for a reason. But I do not enjoy seeing a horse that ran abysmally a month ago, work only once since then, and then step up into stakes company. She is a complete toss for me.
Looking forward to a beautiful, sunny, and perhaps a bit muggy day at the races!