By Mary Rufo
Irish rock band, Thin Lizzy said it 24 years before my birth so I'll quote them nearly 24 years after my birth: The Boys ARE Back in Town.
You would have to be living under a rock to not know significant strides were made last weekend by both a filly and a colt to assert themselves the leaders of the three-year-old division. Thorpedo Anna cruised to a dominant victory in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. Dornoch rode the rail to add another Grade 1 win to his resume in the Haskell just a few hours south on the Jersey Shore. Now, we will see if horses like Sierra Leone, Seize the Grey, or Fierceness have anything to say about that.
First up is Sierra Leone. The $2.3 million purchase is the morning line favorite at even money. He's a gorgeous horse and has a monster stride but he has his share of issues. His obvious issue is he can't run straight in the stretch. He has a habit of paddling in and sometimes making contact with other horses. We all saw this in the 2024 Kentucky Derby when he and his rider made contact with Japanese entrant, Forever Young. I do believe he cost Forever Young the Derby win but at very least, he did cost Forever Young a 2nd place win so even if this horse crosses the wire first, there is that potential for objections/inquiries for any of that bumping behavior. Sierra Leone was the favorite going into the Belmont Stakes run up here at Saratoga but finished 3rd which was his worst ever placing. You could argue that the track was playing to speed that day or that the new cage bit was not well received, but I am wary to give this horse excuses. One of the major positives of this horse is his speed figures are inching in the right direction. There's no severe jumps or valleys in the figures and he is improving in that way. He has yet to break into triple digit Beyer territory which two other horses in this field have already achieved. He is not my choice to win this race.
Next, we have Seize the Grey who has the most racing experience out of anyone in the field. His conditioner, D. Wayne Lukas does not shy away from running his horses often. He is one of two horses in the field who have a triple digit Beyer under their belt and that comes from his win in the Preakness Stakes. He's going to want to charge it on the front end and he shouldn't have any problem if he breaks cleanly and jets up on the rail going into the first turn. Conserving ground will be key for this horse. I think ten furlongs was too much for him last out in the Belmont Stakes but coming back a bit to a mile and an eighth will be favorable for him. He will be my top selection at 6-1 on the morning line.
Batten Down will break from post 3 on Saturday and look to double up on stakes scores. The Juddmonte homebred won the Grade 3 Ohio Derby last month. He wins the beauty contest in this race because he is a beautiful-looking horse. He certainly looks the part coming into this race and his figures make him on par to compete with this company. Plus, we all know the magic that takes place when Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott team up. I'll be using this horse on Saturday.
Entering the starting gate next are longshots, Pony Express and Gould's Gold. Pony Express took three tries to break his maiden with each start being a drop in class. However, his June 15 graduation day was impressive as he dusted the field and won by nine lengths at the wire. He's a question mark but one to be aware of. Gould's Gold is the entrant I find least intimidating in this field but Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr. are winning left and right so you never know. I just question the distance and wonder if a mile and an eighth is too long for him.
Last but certainly not least is Champion two-year-old Fierceness. What a roller coaster for this son of City of Light! Many have noted his clear A/B pattern in his racing resume. He dazzled on debut, then ran an abysmal race in the Grade 1 Champagne. He roared in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then looked empty in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. The "Real" Fierceness showed up in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, but was a complete no-show in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. You'd like to see a more consistent horse because of how nice this horse is when he puts it together. If he shows up in good form on Saturday, he wins by the length of the stretch. We just do not know what version of this Todd Pletcher-trainee will show up.
Prediction: 2-3-1